| Chapter
Three
A citizen of an advanced
industrialized nation consumes in six months the energy
and raw materials that have to last the citizen of a
developing country his entire lifetime.
Maurice
F. Strong, United Nations Advisor
Energy and its control are the
real sources of wealth. There isn't enough today because
current technology can't produce what more than six
billion people need to enjoy an acceptable standard
of living. We must develop new technologies and sources
of energy to create enough to go around.
This would continue the process begun
hundreds of thousands of years ago. Simple stone tools
allowed early hominids to leverage their muscle power
in fighting, hunting and even skinning animals. The
first use of fire allowed early human ancestors to protect
themselves from predators, stay warm and to cook food.
Fire allowed them to turn night into day.
The transition to today's industrial,
electrified world came from an ever more efficient use
of energy using steam, internal combustion engines and
electricity. These new forms of energy supplanted and
then replaced the muscle power from men and animals.
In the United States, wood was the primary
source of energy until steam engines fueled by coal
heralded the beginning of the industrial revolution.
In addition to coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydroelectric
and nuclear power have become our primary energy sources.
(All charts and numbers used come from U.S. Government
agencies including the Dept. of Energy).
http://www.eia.doe.gov
The level of wealth produced from
farms, factories and services increased in direct proportion
to the production and use of energy, but in 1973 the
oil embargo forced the industrial economies to adjust,
primarily by increasing automobile fuel economy. Since
then, wealth in the United States and the world has
been correlated to increased use of electrical energy.
Historical growth of GNP and commercial
energy use in the United States,
1850-1976. (U.S. Stastical Abstracts)
http://www.eia.doe.gov
Understanding the relationship between
energy and wealth in a developed economy, we can begin
to look at today's problems and predict what we need
to develop the entire world.
Approximately one-fifth of the world's
population today is relatively wealthy. These rich consumers,
mostly in the West, use five times the energy and have
five times the wealth as compared to the global average.
Those lucky individuals in the wealthiest nations use
30 times the energy as their poorest neighbors on the
planet.
In the United States, the average income
per person is about $40,000 per year. In Western Europe,
it is about $25,000. Europeans use about half the energy
that Americans do because of their higher population
density, fewer cars and not as many miles of rural roads
to travel. Contrast those numbers with the $1 that the
poorest one billion people on this planet earn each
day — $365 per year.
To reach an adequate 21st Century global
standard of living, it will take the same amount of
energy per person that Western Europe and Japan use.
This means that the world will need at least three to
four times more energy and almost all of the increase
will have to go to the developing world to bring everyone
to a $50,000 per year income.
However, energy consumption projections
for 2025 estimate only a 50 percent increase for the
world. The wealthy nations alone will use half that
increase.
The consequences for the poor are disquieting.
The world is facing an energy situation similar to a
shrinking water hole on the African plains during the
dry season. It is a time of great competition as animals
fight for water and often die from competition, predation,
thirst, disease and starvation.
For humans to avoid a similar fate, the
most important thing we can do is create the necessary
energy – plentiful, inexpensive, sustainable energy.
We need at least enough to support a standard of living
for everyone equal to what Europe and Japan already
enjoy. With this energy a modern, developed global economy
is possible. We can desalinate and provide abundant
water, make fertilizers and pesticides, produce materials
for industries, factories, dwellings and clothing.
The 2005 global economy is just over $40
trillion. If we predict 10 billion people in 2050 and
desire a $50,000 lifestyle for each, we would need $500
trillion! With current projections estimating a $75-100
trillion economy in 2050, the shortfall is staggering.
Everyone today would face a lifetime of watching the
poor fall further and further behind — assuming, they
would do so peacefully.
Yet, with enough energy, we know the whole
world can be brought up to the middle class. This energy
must be sustainable over time. The past 150 years of
burning fossil fuel is warming the planet, melting glaciers,
and potentially, polar ice. The oceans are rising and
we are witnessing larger and more powerful storms and
their damage. We must have enough energy, but it must
be in new and safe forms.
The current levels of global spending
on energy research and development have produced no
breakthroughs. Use of existing sustainable technology
such as wind, solar and biomass can help, but it cannot
provide the level of energy desired. Nuclear energy
will provide some, but it has its own challenges with
radiation, weapons potentials, waste management and
permanent disposal. What is needed is a level of research
effort 10 to 20 times greater in order to ensure that
the goal of abundant clean energy is achieved.
How would we finance the research and
development necessary for breakthroughs large enough
to produce this clean energy that everyone would like
to see?
The answer is to do what the USA did during
World War II and afterward. Americans increased the
size of their real economy 2½ times in 1940-1945,
borrowing money with long term bonds. Those bonds financed
the building of weapons and armaments, research and
development and large construction and projects.
The Manhattan Project, the industrial
equivalent of the entire USA automotive industry, produced
the atomic bomb and laid the foundation for nuclear
power energy. The USA paid off those debts in cheaper
dollars, because of inflation, over the next 60 years.
As a result, the economy increased more than 100 times
in paper dollars and increased approximately 10 times
in real wealth (standard of living).
This happened because the technology that
we created essentially came from the investment we made
during World War II in research and development. The
key to our world's future is the same: enough research
and development so that we can invent new forms of clean
energy.
This research should include existing
technologies such as solar, wind, geothermal, nuclear,
carbon dioxide storage, hybrid and electric vehicles
and conservation. Cutting edge technologies should be
expanded, including nanotechnology, fusion, super-conducting
materials and advanced batteries. The current levels
of effort must be vastly expanded to ensure success.
Abundant clean energy must be achieved.
The necessary research and development
may cost a trillion dollars a year or more worldwide.
This is only 1/40th of the entire wealth produced by
the planet in 2005. It is a trivial amount compared
to the potential benefits — a $500 trillion economy
and a middle-class lifestyle for everyone. What we need
is to put every available scientist and engineer to
work on research and development in every area related
to energy, including pure and applied science, not knowing
where we'll find a breakthrough. At the end of five
years, we will determine the most promising areas and
then channel more funds accordingly. At the end of 10
years, we will see the results, just as we did at the
end of the Apollo moon and Manhattan projects.
Solar Power is a promising area for sustainable
energy research. One of the authors has developed a
method for using reflected sunlight to produce power
from concentrated solar energy. It may be used to fuel
conventional electricity production plants at a fraction
of the 2005 cost. A technical description is included
in the Appendix.
All areas must be explored. Enough energy
is the single key to humanity's future. With enough,
we can have a prosperous world; without it we and our
children face famine and war.
This is the single most important challenge
of our generation. We must succeed and leave this successful
energy legacy if there is to be a future. We and our
children do not need to fight over the shrinking water
hole; we can use our brains and create and discover
new sources and bring it to us all.
Now that we know what is needed, let's
look at how to come together and achieve it.
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